Summary: In Aug. 2023, ammonium phosphate prices kept steady while presenting a tendency to climb as MAP supply was tight and DAP demand improved.

Diammonium phosphate (DAP)

In the first half of Aug., domestic autumn market moved on gradually and manufacturers mainly delivered orders received in earlier stage and export orders. In the second half of this month, DAP prices remained stable while showing a tendency to edge up because of supply shortage and improved demand. Enterprises were reluctant to sell their products considering the tight supply and manufacturers mainly kept production to supply advance orders; in terms of export, DAP demand continued to grow due to the influence of rainfall in Southeast Asia and export prices increased significantly, further invigorating the domestic market.

Monoammonium phosphate (MAP)

In the first half of Aug., MAP manufacturers had abundant orders to be delivered and some had orders that could last until late Sept. Most enterprises stopped offering quotations and industry participants mainly took wait-and-see attitudes. In the second half of Aug., enterprises mainly delivered orders received in earlier stage and some accepted a small number of orders; the majority of enterprises still had sufficient orders to be delivered; market supply was in shortage and inventories were at a low level.

Raw material

Prices of domestic sulphur maintained stability while showing an upward trend as downstream demand improved, customers continuously purchased the product.

Phosphorus ore prices are expected to keep stable in the short term owing to stable support from downstream demand. Attention should be paid to the changes of downstream phosphate fertiliser demand and phosphorus ore supply.

Mainstream prices of liquid ammonia picked up and more transactions were seen in the market.

Forecast

DAP—Downstream demand is gradually released as the fertiliser preparation in autumn is about to end; global demand is strong because of the rainfall in Southeast Asia and export prices are anticipated to maintain an upward trend. DAP prices are estimated to stay steady while showing a tendency to rise in the near future. Attention should be paid to changes of downstream demand, costs, and the export market.

MAP—MAP enterprises receive abundant advance orders for delivery of downstream compound fertiliser manufacturers keeps improving. MAP prices are predicted to continue to grow in the short run. Attention should be paid to changes of costs, downstream procurement, and exports.